Overconfidence in climate overshoot | Nature

Earth’s atmosphere: if humanity emits more greenhouse gases than is compatible with the temperature limit, it will have to take countermeasures with net removals later. | Photo: Shutterstock/leeborn

Abstract

Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.

Full story (Open access): Overconfidence in climate overshoot | Nature

EcoHealth Score Card for River Raisin: No Reason to Celebrate!

The River Raisin Watershed Council recently reported the results of the EcoCard Scoring by The University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science as a success story. From my personal experience as a Biology Professor teaching Freshwater Ecology for the last 15 years, I do not find a score of 54% acceptable, and neither is the label "Moderate" or a C grade justified with a low percentage like 54%. In fact, in most college grading schedules, anything below 60% is a failing grade of E or F. As in education, weakening a meaningful scale just because a peer group scores evenly low is not an accurate quality measure.

Figure 1: Details of the 2024 scoring for the River Raisin. Source: The University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, https://ecoreportcard.org/report-cards/river-raisin/ 

The dire situation of the River Raisin and many assessed watersheds and waterbodies becomes even more alarming when we disentangle the arbitrarily lumped categories of the scoring and exclude metrics that do not directly correspond to the environmental health of the water body, such as local ownership, affordable housing, beach access, walkability, household income, river economy, and even air quality. As much as these categories are essential in the quality of living, diversity, equity and inclusion, and environmental justice, they distract from even lower scores of metrics directly reflecting water quality, such as 17% for bacteria, 12% for nitrogen, and protected lands, and low scores around 20% for turbidity leading to widespread smothering and embeddedment, low tree and forest cover and high heat vulnerability and risks when consuming fish from the river.  

Sure, we need some good news in all the doomsday scenarios of climate change, societal disconnect, manipulation of information, genocide, and rising totalitarianism. However, celebrating severe impairment and shortcomings as success keeps us from realizing that we are in a severe environmental crisis and need to address the root causes of the issues, which require systemic changes rather than small voluntary efforts of individuals. We need to curb the influx of fertilizer from corn and soy monocultures and runoff from industrial cattle and hog farms by converting industrial farming to regenerative and agroecological practices rather than trying to reduce the issues with voluntary buffer strips and precision agriculture. We must transform our energy-intensive economy and lifestyles depending on fossil fuels to energy-conserving, humble lifestyles, and efficient economies based on clean, renewable energy instead of trying to reduce our footprints using personally owned electric vehicles and solar panels while maintaining or increasing our high-energy demanding lifestyles.

 

All nature,
all growth,
all peace,

all prosperity

and beauty in the world

is based on patience,

needs time,

needs silence,

needs trust,

needs faith in long-term processes of

much longer duration,

than a single life lasts ...

Hermann Hesse - translated by DeepL and reformatted like the German original.

Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action | Copernicus

5th June 2024

A STARK WARNING

 

HUMAN-INDUCED WARMING AT ALL-TIME HIGH

May 2024 was the warmest May on record, marking the 12th consecutive month in which the global average temperature reached a record value for the corresponding month, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (*C3S). The C3S data were cited by the UN Secretary General in a call for urgent action, as two new reports detailing aspects of climate change are published.

The C3S data are in line with the latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which issues a stark warning that we are getting ever closer to the thresholds set in the Paris Agreement on climate change. According to the report, the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.

Full Sory: Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action | Copernicus

The key point that COP28 is ignoring » Yale Climate Connections

The key point that COP28 is ignoring » Yale Climate Connections

‘Game-changer’: judge rules in favor of young activists in US climate trial

Against all odds, a Montana state judge sided today with 16 young activists in the country’s first ever constitutional climate case. This trial comes after state lawmakers passed legislation that allowed fossil fuel projects to be permitted without considering greenhouse gas emissions — a violation of their state constitutional right to a “clean and healthful environment.”

Full article:

‘Game-changer’: judge rules in favor of young activists in US climate trial

Tuesday was world’s hottest day on record – breaking Monday’s record

Average global temperature hits 17.18C and experts expect record to be broken again very soon

Damien Gayle

@damiengayle

Wed 5 Jul 2023 13.47 EDT

World temperature records have been broken for a second day in a row, data suggests, as experts issued a warning that this year’s warmest days are still to come – and with them the warmest days ever recorded.

The average global air temperature was 17.18C (62.9F) on Tuesday, according to data collated by the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), surpassing the record 17.01C reached on Monday.

Read full story at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/05/tuesday-was-worlds-hottest-day-on-record-breaking-mondays-record

Edward Snowden Quote on the Right To Privacy

 “Arguing that you don't care about the right to privacy because you have nothing to hide is no different than saying you don't care about free speech because you have nothing to say.”

HISTORY OF SPILLS: TC Energy’s Keystone pipeline (22 SPILLS: 2010-2022)

(Note: TC Energy’s (formerly TransCanada) “Keystone pipeline” is not to be confused with the company’s proposed “Keystone XL” pipeline — a separate pipeline project that was defeated and cancelled two separate times under Pres. Obama and Pres. Biden. The Keystone 1 pipeline carries up to 720,000 barrels per day of tarsands from Alberta, Canada to refineries in Texas and Illinois.)

TC Energy oil spill PR oil discharge 12-9-22 (Photo: U.S. EPA)

• December 8, 2022: PHMSA issues Corrective Action Order to TC Energy re: Dec. 7 spill.
• #22: Dec. 7, 2022: TC Energy shut down its Keystone pipeline after detecting a leak of 588,000 gallons into a creek near Washington, KS — about 20 miles south of Steele City, NE. “An emergency shutdown and response was initiated at about 9 p.m. CT on Dec. 7 after alarms and a pressure drop in the system, the company said in a release, adding booms were deployed to control downstream migration of the release.” November 5, 2019: PHMSA issues Corrective Action Order to TransCanada re: Oct. 30 spill.
• #21: October 31, 2019: TransCanada’s (“TC Energy”) Keystone pipeline leaked at least 380,000 gallons of tarsands oil and toxic diluents that affected wetlands in northeastern North Dakota. No cause has yet been established.
• #20: February 6, 2019: Keystone pipeline spills 1,800 gallons in St. Charles County, Missouri. After metallurgical analysis of the spill’s cause: “The composite wrap was inadequately designed for the metal loss feature it was to protect, as the applicator’s interpretation of the feature as mechanical damage led to fewer wraps than corrosion given the naming convention used in the composite vendor’s software. Feature direct examination concluded blunt metal loss with no evidence of sharp edges or stress concentrators, and the feature root cause analysis determined the accelerated rate of corrosion was primarily caused by stray direct current interference and was subsequently repaired. The RCFA indicated the primary cause of the leak was a through-wall crack that exhibited signs of fatigue, initiated from localized stress concentrations in the irregular pitted surface of the repaired metal loss feature.” Of note: A 2015 investigation in the same county found Keystone pipe there had “suffered from corrosion so severe that it was worn through 95 percent in some places after being in service for less than two years. In one spot, inspectors found the pipeline was down to a metal layer just one third the thickness of a dime.”
• #19: February 20, 2018: Keystone pipeline spills 15 gallons from a Pump Station in Steele City, Nebraska, blamed on “a leaking float control valve.”

Read the full story here: Keystone Pipeline Spill History | Bold Nebraska

Cop15: key points of the nature deal at a glance

Main points of the historic agreement signed in Montreal to halt the destruction of Earth’s ecosystems

Half Earth Feature Map https://map.half-earthproject.org/featuredGlobe

Agreement to conserve 30% of Earth by the end of the decade

Inspired by the Harvard biologist EO Wilson’s vision of protecting half the planet for the long-term survival of humanity, the most high-profile target at Cop15 has inspired and divided in equal measure. The final wording commits governments to conserving nearly a third of Earth for nature by 2030 while respecting indigenous and traditional territories in the expansion of new protected areas. The language emphasizes the importance of effective conservation management to ensure wetlands, rainforests, grasslands and coral reefs are properly protected, not just on paper.

Read more @ Cop15: key points of the nature deal at a glance

Keystone pipeline shuts down after oil spill in Kansas creek | PBS NewsHour

TOPEKA, Kan. (AP) — An oil spill in a creek in northeastern Kansas shut down a major pipeline that carries oil from Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast, briefly causing oil prices to rise Thursday.

Emergency crews work to clean up the largest U.S. crude oil spill in nearly a decade, following the leak at the Keystone pipeline operated by TC Energy in rural Washington County, Kansas, Dec. 9, 2022. Photo by Drone Base/REUTERS

Canada-based TC Energy said it shut down its Keystone system Wednesday night following a drop in pipeline pressure. It said oil spilled into a creek in Washington County, Kansas, about 150 miles (240 kilometers) northwest of Kansas City.

Continue reading at: Keystone pipeline shuts down after oil spill in Kansas creek | PBS NewsHour

Find Corridor-Focused Organizations // LandScope America

A wildlife corridor, habitat corridor, or green corridor^[1] is an area of habitat connecting wildlife populations separated by human activities or structures (such as roads, development, or logging). This allows an exchange of individuals between populations, which may help prevent the negative effects of inbreeding and reduced genetic diversity (via genetic drift) that often occur within isolated populations. (Wikipedia)

A green forest corridor in Brazil. Picture credit: Wikipedia.

Find Corridor-Focused Organizations // LandScope America

EU climate plan sacrifices carbon storage and biodiversity for bioenergy

Incoming policies will cause the European Union to harvest more wood, shift one-fifth of cropland to bioenergy and outsource deforestation, analysis shows.

Continue reading at: EU climate plan sacrifices carbon storage and biodiversity for bioenergy

New Jersey Sues 5 Oil Giants, Industry Lobby for Climate Fraud

"We will work tirelessly to make sure these companies pay every last dollar for the harm they've caused," said state AG Matthew Platkin. "If you lie to the public to protect your profits, we will hold you accountable."

Seaside Heights and other towns on and beyond the Jersey Shore were devastated by Superstorm Sandy in 2012. (Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images)

New Jersey on Tuesday sued five oil and gas companies and a leading fossil fuel lobby group for knowingly lying to the public about the existence of climate change and the role their products play in exacerbating human-caused global heating.

The lawsuit, filed in New Jersey Superior Court in Mercer County, targets ExxonMobil Corporation, Shell Oil Company, Chevron Corporation, BP, ConocoPhillips, and the American Petroleum Institute (API).

Read the full story here: New Jersey Sues 5 Oil Giants, Industry Lobby for Climate Fraud

The transformation of a low diversity sterile backyard (first picture) to a backyard rich in insects, wildlife and birds and a productive permaculture garden

The transformation of a low diversity sterile backyard (first picture) to a backyard rich in insects, wildlife and birds and a productive permaculture garden took about 6 years as it was done in several easy and manageable steps:

1. Establishments of the raised garden beds
2. Building of the 3-bin compost and establishment of rain barrels
3. Prairie restorations on the slopes, driveway and side yard
4. Planting of native transplants into un-mowed islands
5. Changing mowing patterns to keep native plants that outseed into lawn and also keep non-native flowers frequented by pollinators
6. Excavating the pond and planting of native water plants

Link to post with pictures: https://www.shusustainability.org/build-a-biodiverse-backyard.html

IPCC adaptation report ‘a damning indictment of failed global leadership on climate’

UN scientists on Monday delivered a stark warning about the impact of climate change on people and the planet, saying that ecosystem collapse, species extinction, deadly heatwaves and floods are among the "unavoidable multiple climate hazards” the world will face over the next two decades 

IPCC adaptation report ‘a damning indictment of failed global leadership on climate’

Ten facts about land systems for sustainability | PNAS

Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits—"win–wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use.

Continue reading at: Ten facts about land systems for sustainability | PNAS

World spends $1.8tn a year on subsidies that harm environment, study finds

Research prompts warnings humanity is ‘financing its own extinction’ through subsidies damaging to the climate and wildlife

World spends $1.8tn a year on subsidies that harm environment, study finds

Tracking Gun Violence Losses Under Biden

As gun deaths and injuries reach crisis levels across the country and congressional Republicans continue to block lifesaving legislation, President Joe Biden must lead by doing everything and anything he can to prioritize gun violence reduction.

Tracking Gun Violence Losses Under Biden

Petition · SOS from Auroville: The City of Dawn needs your help urgently! · Change.org

I showed the wonderful documentary Ever Slow Green: https://youtu.be/51npNzfj2zY at Siena Heights University last year documenting one of the most successful reforestations in India - and now it is in dire danger. Please get informed, sign and share! 

Petition · SOS from Auroville: The City of Dawn needs your help urgently! · Change.org

Petition · SOS from Auroville: The City of Dawn needs your help urgently! · Change.org