Overconfidence in climate overshoot | Nature

Earth’s atmosphere: if humanity emits more greenhouse gases than is compatible with the temperature limit, it will have to take countermeasures with net removals later. | Photo: Shutterstock/leeborn

Abstract

Global emission reduction efforts continue to be insufficient to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement1. This makes the systematic exploration of so-called overshoot pathways that temporarily exceed a targeted global warming limit before drawing temperatures back down to safer levels a priority for science and policy2,3,4,5. Here we show that global and regional climate change and associated risks after an overshoot are different from a world that avoids it. We find that achieving declining global temperatures can limit long-term climate risks compared with a mere stabilization of global warming, including for sea-level rise and cryosphere changes. However, the possibility that global warming could be reversed many decades into the future might be of limited relevance for adaptation planning today. Temperature reversal could be undercut by strong Earth-system feedbacks resulting in high near-term and continuous long-term warming6,7. To hedge and protect against high-risk outcomes, we identify the geophysical need for a preventive carbon dioxide removal capacity of several hundred gigatonnes. Yet, technical, economic and sustainability considerations may limit the realization of carbon dioxide removal deployment at such scales8,9. Therefore, we cannot be confident that temperature decline after overshoot is achievable within the timescales expected today. Only rapid near-term emission reductions are effective in reducing climate risks.

Full story (Open access): Overconfidence in climate overshoot | Nature

EcoHealth Score Card for River Raisin: No Reason to Celebrate!

The River Raisin Watershed Council recently reported the results of the EcoCard Scoring by The University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science as a success story. From my personal experience as a Biology Professor teaching Freshwater Ecology for the last 15 years, I do not find a score of 54% acceptable, and neither is the label "Moderate" or a C grade justified with a low percentage like 54%. In fact, in most college grading schedules, anything below 60% is a failing grade of E or F. As in education, weakening a meaningful scale just because a peer group scores evenly low is not an accurate quality measure.

Figure 1: Details of the 2024 scoring for the River Raisin. Source: The University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, https://ecoreportcard.org/report-cards/river-raisin/ 

The dire situation of the River Raisin and many assessed watersheds and waterbodies becomes even more alarming when we disentangle the arbitrarily lumped categories of the scoring and exclude metrics that do not directly correspond to the environmental health of the water body, such as local ownership, affordable housing, beach access, walkability, household income, river economy, and even air quality. As much as these categories are essential in the quality of living, diversity, equity and inclusion, and environmental justice, they distract from even lower scores of metrics directly reflecting water quality, such as 17% for bacteria, 12% for nitrogen, and protected lands, and low scores around 20% for turbidity leading to widespread smothering and embeddedment, low tree and forest cover and high heat vulnerability and risks when consuming fish from the river.  

Sure, we need some good news in all the doomsday scenarios of climate change, societal disconnect, manipulation of information, genocide, and rising totalitarianism. However, celebrating severe impairment and shortcomings as success keeps us from realizing that we are in a severe environmental crisis and need to address the root causes of the issues, which require systemic changes rather than small voluntary efforts of individuals. We need to curb the influx of fertilizer from corn and soy monocultures and runoff from industrial cattle and hog farms by converting industrial farming to regenerative and agroecological practices rather than trying to reduce the issues with voluntary buffer strips and precision agriculture. We must transform our energy-intensive economy and lifestyles depending on fossil fuels to energy-conserving, humble lifestyles, and efficient economies based on clean, renewable energy instead of trying to reduce our footprints using personally owned electric vehicles and solar panels while maintaining or increasing our high-energy demanding lifestyles.

 

All nature,
all growth,
all peace,

all prosperity

and beauty in the world

is based on patience,

needs time,

needs silence,

needs trust,

needs faith in long-term processes of

much longer duration,

than a single life lasts ...

Hermann Hesse - translated by DeepL and reformatted like the German original.

Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action | Copernicus

5th June 2024

A STARK WARNING

 

HUMAN-INDUCED WARMING AT ALL-TIME HIGH

May 2024 was the warmest May on record, marking the 12th consecutive month in which the global average temperature reached a record value for the corresponding month, according to data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (*C3S). The C3S data were cited by the UN Secretary General in a call for urgent action, as two new reports detailing aspects of climate change are published.

The C3S data are in line with the latest Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which issues a stark warning that we are getting ever closer to the thresholds set in the Paris Agreement on climate change. According to the report, the global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2024 and 2028 is predicted to be between 1.1°C and 1.9°C higher than the 1850-1900 baseline.

Full Sory: Hottest May on record spurs call for climate action | Copernicus